August WASDE: Higher U.S. soybean yield

August 16, 2022 | Jeff Hutton

It could be a record yield in 2022 for U.S. soybeans if estimates hold true.

That’s the message from Mac Marshall, vice president of market intelligence for the United Soybean Board, following the release of this month’s U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

Robust numbers

“Despite challenges during planting season, overall crop development has looked strong and USDA revised its yield projection up by 4/10 of a bushel to 51.9 bushels per acre,” Marshall said. “If achieved, it would be a record yield for the U.S.”

The WASDE report forecasts soybean production at 4.53 billion bushels, up 26 million bushels (mb) with higher yields more than offsetting a lower harvested area, now forecast at 87.2 million acres, down 300,000 acres from July.

Soybean supplies for 2022/23 are projected at 4.8 billion bushels, up 36 mb from last month. U.S. soybean exports are raised 20 mb to 2.16 billion on increased supplies with soybean ending stocks forecast at 245 mb, up 15 mb from 230 mb in July.

“With a robust order book for the 22/23 crop, USDA took up its new crop export forecast by 20 mb to 2.155 billion bushels,” Marshall says. “For the current 21/22 marketing year, USDA pulled back its export forecast slightly as the season draws to a close. This 10 mb reduction translates into additional carry-in of 10 mb to the 22/23 marketing year beginning on Sept. 1.

“Factoring in the increased carry-in and higher forecast production and the increased export outlook, projected ending stocks for the 22/23 marketing year were taken up by 15 mb to 245 mb.”

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.35 per bushel, down 5 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil price forecasts are unchanged at $390 per short ton and 69 cents per pound, respectively.

“Old crop biofuels use for soybean oil was revised down, generating incremental carryout and higher projected supplies for the new marketing year,” Marshall says.

Final perspective

The WASDE report noted that 2022/23 global oilseed supply and use forecasts include higher production, crush, exports and ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is raised 2.9 million tons to 646 million with higher forecasts for soybeans, rapeseed and sunflower seed partly offset with lower cottonseed production in the United States.

In addition to higher production for the United States, soybean production for China is increased on higher area cited in recent provincial reports.

“Spanning out, projected global ending stocks were revised up 1.8 million metric tons (mmt) to 101.4 mmt,” Marshall says. “The increase is projected ending stocks was primarily driven by an upward revision of 900,000 mt to China’s production. A larger U.S. crop, reduced exports from Argentina, and lower use in the European Union also contributed to the increase in projected world inventories."

Click here for the full report.

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