Ethan Crow, an Iowa Soybean Association member from Marshalltown, cuts soybeans earlier this week. Despite reduced supplies, USDA raised soybean exports 75 million bushels on record early-season sales. (Photo: Joseph L. Murphy/Iowa Soybean Association)
Early season sales boost U.S. soybean export forecast
October 9, 2020 | Bethany Baratta
U.S. soybean production is forecast at 4.27 billion bushels, down 1% from the previous forecast but up 20% from last year, according to the USDA’s crop production report. Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, yields are expected to average a record high 51.9 bushels per harvested acre, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 4.5 bushels from 2019.
Despite reduced supplies, USDA raised soybean exports 75 million bushels on record early-season sales. With smaller supplies and increased exports, ending stocks are projected at 290 million bushels, down 170 million bushels from last month, according to the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
The 2020/21 foreign soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower beginning stocks, higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered mainly on higher 2019/20 crush for China that is partly offset by lower exports and higher stocks for Brazil. The 2020/21 soybean imports, crush, and meal consumption are higher for China, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam, aligning with prior year increases in domestic meal use. Argentina’s exports are lowered 0.5 million tons due to stronger competition from the United States. With smaller supplies and increased exports, ending stocks are projected at 290 million bushels, down 170 million bushels from last month, according to the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is forecast at $9.80 per bushel, up 55 cents reflecting smaller supplies and higher exports. The soybean meal price is forecast at $335 per short ton, up $20 per short ton.
Iowa soybean production
The USDA forecast Iowa soybean production at 521.9 million bushels, up from 501.6 million bushels harvested in 2019.
The average Iowa soybean yield was estimated 2-bushels-per-acre higher from last month at 56 bushels per acre.
Iowa corn production is forecast at 2.36 billion bushels, according to the crop production report. Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, yields are expected to average 186 bushels per acre, down 5 bushels per acre from the Sept. 1 forecast, and 12 bushels per acre lower than last year.
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