Mother Nature's guessing game

March 27, 2025 | Jeff Hutton

Will it be rainy or dry this spring? Hot or cold? The only sure bet is that the answer is 50-50.

If you ask meteorologists, prognosticators or just about anyone with an opinion, the answers are vague at best when it comes to predicting Iowa’s spring forecast for April through June.

Equal chances of uncertainty

According to the latest three-month (April-June 2025) forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS), the current La Nina pattern is slowly transitioning to an ENSO-neutral state.

The neutral state ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) occurs when water temperature anomalies in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean are between 0.5 degrees Celsius and -0.5 degrees Celsius. In other words, the status means neither La Niña or El Niño are in control and is sometimes referred to as La Nada.

According to NOAA in its most recent report issued March 20, Iowa has an equal chance of having below or above normal temperatures for the next three months.

In the same report, the state and much of the upper Midwest, rainfall chances are 50-50 – could be below normal or above normal.

Meanwhile, The Old Farmer’s Almanac, is predicting a warm spring, but below-normal rainfall in much of Iowa, Missouri and eastern Kansas and Nebraska.

“Waves of heat and dry conditions are likely to continue through the summer,” according to the Almanac.

If that holds true, drought conditions will continue to be an issue for the state.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor this week, Iowa is currently listed as being 80% abnormally dry or within the moderate drought category. Roughly 20% of the state, mainly the southern one-third of Iowa, is categorized as having no drought issues at this time.

Only Mother Nature knows

Scot Bailey just finished seeding alfalfa and oats on his Cass County farm. He’ll soon start anhydrous and fertilizer applications in preparation for his soybeans and corn.

“We just got enough rain the other day to keep me out of the fields, but we’ll get there soon,” he says.

Bailey, an Iowa Soybean Association board director for District 7, says while he follows weather forecasts, he knows there are no sure guarantees as to what will happen.

“All I’ve been hearing lately is that we have a 50-50 chance right now,” he says. “Luckily, we had some rain last fall, but there’s not as much moisture down deep as we would like.”

Bailey laughs if anyone, meteorologist or general prognosticator, can fully predict the weather.

“It’s always a surprise,” he says. “One might predict we’re going to get all this rain, but nobody has a crystal ball. The only one who knows is Mother Nature and she likes to make you guess.”

Bailey says most farmers don’t put a lot of stock into weather forecasts because they are too often wrong when it comes to the actual outcome.

“Look, you put the crop in and hope it will grow,” he says. “If you farm, you have to be an eternal optimist. This long-range stuff is just too hard to predict.”

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