Jamieson Greer

Greer nominated as U.S. trade representative

December 5, 2024 | Jeff Hutton

An Air Force veteran and international trade lawyer has been chosen as the U.S. trade representative-designee for the upcoming Trump administration.

According to Agri-Pulse, Jamieson Greer was previously the chief of staff for former U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer during Donald Trump’s first term. He had a hand in several of the administration’s signature trade efforts – including retooling the free-trade agreement with South Korea, negotiating the phase one agreement with China and securing congressional approval for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

In the past, Greer has been an outspoken supporter of using tariffs to help U.S. exporters compete in international markets. He said this past summer that China and other countries have long engaged in unfair trade and tax practices to benefit their companies and disadvantage U.S. producers.

Greer’s appointment comes as trade relations with China remain a key issue for the agricultural sector which relies heavily on export markets to drive demand.

Naming Greer as the USTR designee follows the news that Trump wants to impose duties of 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada and 10% on Chinese goods unless they “halt flows of the deadly opioid fentanyl and illegal migrants into the United States,” according to Reuters.

That threat by Trump is on top of his vow to impose tariffs of 60% on Chinese imports and 10- 20% on all goods from elsewhere. Some economists warn the actions may reorder trade flows and raise costs, while Trump argues it will rebuild the U.S. industrial base.

Trade priorities

Matt Herman, the chief officer for demand and advocacy for the Iowa Soybean Association (ISA), says the organization hopes to work with Greer in shaping trade opportunities for soybean producers.

"Soybeans are Iowa's largest agricultural export, so we look forward to working with Ambassador-Designate Greer to support USTR’s work at addressing market access and non-tariff issues which is critical for continued market growth for soybeans in the state and the rest of the country,” he says.

Herman, along with Megan Decker, ISA’s manager of advocacy, say no matter who is acting as the USTR or which administration is in The White House, ISA’s trade priorities remain aligned with the key message from the America Soybean Association (ASA), specifically maintaining access to soy’s leading export market – China – and expanding export opportunities.

The ASA also notes that:

  • Trade is a top priority for soybean farmers.
  • Soybeans and soy products are America’s leading agricultural export.
  • In the 2023/2024 marketing year, U.S. exporters shipped 46.1 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans to foreign markets, accounting for nearly $24 billion in sales.
  • Of these exports, 25 mmt were bound for China. That’s 58% of U.S. exports and more than $13 billion in value for American soybean farmers.
  • China is the largest export market for U.S. soybeans and accounts for more U.S. exports than all other trading partners combined. By comparison in MY23/24, the next two largest export markets were the European Union (EU) and Mexico. Both markets purchased nearly 4.9 mmt of U.S. soybeans.
  • It is critical to maintain existing global markets for soybeans, as well as to expand markets through finalizing and reaching new free trade agreements – including maintaining U.S. soy’s market share in China. U.S. soybean farmers need certainty that they will maintain market access in China.
  • To facilitate diversification, it is critical the U.S. government reengages in negotiations for multilateral trade agreements to address tariff and non-tariff barriers and give U.S. agriculture increased market access in emerging economies.

Tariff and trade worries

The ASA and the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) recently commissioned the World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services (WAEES) to evaluate the potential impacts of renewed tariffs in a trade conflict with China. This study assesses how such tariffs would affect U.S. soybeans and corn.

According to the WAEES study:

  • The 2018 trade war resulted in more than $27 billion in losses for U.S. agriculture, with soybeans facing the most significant setbacks. The retaliatory tariffs dismantled hard-won relationships with international buyers, creating lasting damage that soybean farmers in the U.S. are still grappling with.
  • Should China reinstate tariffs, U.S. soybean exports could decline by 14-16 mmt annually - a 51.8% drop from expected levels. Such a reduction jeopardizes the income and future of soybean farmers.
  • While there may be attempts to redirect exports, Brazil and Argentina stand ready to capture any lost market share, potentially gaining an average of 4.6 mmt in exports. This shift undermines the competitive position of U.S. soybeans.
  • The removal of tariff waivers could lead to a price decline of 60 cents per bushel for U.S. soybeans, while Brazilian farmers might see prices rise by more than 75 cents per bushel. This widening price gap threatens profitability and sustainability for U.S. soybean producers.
  • In a potential 60% tariff scenario, U.S. soybean exports to China could drop by more than 25 mmt while soybean farm prices drop by $1 per bushel. This would represent a loss of 2.9 to 4.6 mmt annually, exacerbating financial strains on U.S. soybean farmers.
  • The study projects that U.S. soybean farmers could face annual production value losses ranging from $3.6 billion to $5.9 billion. These losses are unsustainable, especially in a landscape of rising input costs and tightening margins.

ASA says it’s imperative for policymakers to prioritize the interests of U.S. soybean farmers in trade discussions.

“It is essential to implement policies that protect market access and ensure the long-term sustainability of U.S. soybean production,” according to an ASA statement. “A renewed trade conflict poses a serious threat to U.S. soybean prices, production and rural economies. The implications of tariffs could be devastating, benefiting foreign competitors at the expense of U.S. soybean farmers and the broader economy.”

Navarro’s return

Meanwhile, along with Greer’s appointment, Trump has announced that Peter Navarro will return to the White House in a senior trade role.

According to Agri-Pulse, Navarro, who helmed the White House National Trade Council during Trump’s first term, will serve as senior counselor for trade and manufacturing. The former White House aide was released from federal prison in July following a four-month sentence for defying a federal subpoena after he failed to hand over documents to the House committee investigating the events of Jan. 6, 2021.

Trump has praised Navarro’s role in negotiating the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and retooling the free trade agreement with South Korea during his first term, adding that Navarro “moved every one of my Tariff and Trade actions FAST.”

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