June WASDE report reflect reduced exports

June 15, 2023 | Jeff Hutton

U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2023/24 include higher beginning and ending stocks, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for June.

Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced exports for 2022/23, down 15 million bushels to 2 billion based on lower-than-expected shipments in May and competition from South America. With increased supplies for 2023/24 and no use changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels, up 15 million.

“USDA is too high on its export target, but too low on its crush target,” says StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman, adding he expects ending stocks to increase 40-50 million bushels, which is “not too overly burdensome.”

The soybean price is forecast at $12.10 per bushel, unchanged from May.

The 2023/24 global soybean outlook includes higher beginning stocks, reduced crush and higher ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks for the United States and Brazil are partly offset by lower stocks for Argentina.

The stock revisions reflect 2022/23 production changes for Brazil, up 1 million tons to 156 million, and Argentina, down 2 million to 25 million. Global crush for 2023/24 is lowered on lower crush for Argentina. Global 2023/24 ending stocks are increased 800,000 tons to 123.3 million with higher stocks for the United States, Brazil and the European Union (EU), which are partly offset by smaller stocks for Argentina and Vietnam.

Other notable oilseed changes, according to the WASDE report, include higher rapeseed production for the EU that is partly offset by lower production for Australia. Malaysian palm oil production is reduced for 2022/23 based on lower-than-expected monthly production estimates for March and April.

For the complete report, click here.

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