Quiet WASDE report for March

March 20, 2025 | Jeff Hutton

This month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) might be categorized as unremarkable, even quiet.

The report left soybean balance sheets and ending stocks unchanged from the previous month.

The numbers

According to the USDA, the soybean oil balance sheet includes higher exports and lower soybean oil used for biofuel. The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bushel, down 15 cents from February. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound, respectively.

Global 2024/25 soybean supply and use forecasts include nearly unchanged production, higher crush and lower ending stocks. Higher production for Ukraine, Mexico and Australia is offset by lower production for South Africa. Soybean crush is raised 2.9 million tons to 352.8 million, mainly on higher crush for China, Argentina, Thailand, Ukraine and Pakistan. Soybean crush for China is raised 2 million tons to 105 million based on pace to date. Global soybean exports are nearly unchanged as higher shipments for Canada are offset by lower exports for South Africa. Global ending stocks are reduced 2.9 million tons to 121.4 million mainly on lower stocks for China and Argentina.

Also to note, 2024/25 global production of high-oil content seeds (rapeseed and sunflower seed) is raised 1% this month but still 5% lower than 2023/24. Sunflower seed production is raised for Russia and Ukraine and rapeseed production is raised for Australia and Ukraine.

Quiet … for now

Kristin Stien, a senior grain market advisor with Ever.Ag out of Benton County, says this month’s WASDE report was quiet.

“This was a very neutral report,” she says, adding it was “an interesting one due to the USDA prefaced the report with ‘NOTE: The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place. U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been suspended until April 2 for all products covered under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which include most agricultural products in the WASDE.’”

Stien says the report notes that “reciprocal tariffs are also scheduled to begin on April 2. However, until these are in effect, WASDE does not incorporate them into commodity forecasts. Despite U.S. tariffs being suspended, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs remain in place. These are accounted for in WASDE estimates and are assumed to continue. U.S. tariffs on China and China’s retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. are assumed to remain in place.”

Stien says tariffs have been” an interesting play” on the market and are proving to be in reports as well.

As to her perspective on the report, “when I say it was neutral, the cut they posted in global bean stocks leaves us supported (likely around $10 for the time being), but not bullish enough due to the fact that we still have growing stocks year-over-year, worldwide,” she says.

Stien added that both Brazil and Argentina are in the middle of harvest and production has been in line with expectations; a big crop is coming out of South America.

“This is definitely something we have to watch going into the March 31 report. If their crop continues to grow, how big of a reduction in acres can the world ‘afford’ to take going into the United States’ growing season? Some estimates are coming in around 2 million acres,” she says.

What to look for

For now, Stien says it seems like soybean demand will continue to be the item to watch. It's what caused the 3 million metric ton reduction to global stocks. The assumption, she adds, is that tariffs with China are being calculated into the U.S. balance sheet and domestic stocks remained the same while global stocks decreased is making her wonder how the world buyers are pivoting around American policies. 

“When looking out over time, $10 has been a huge technical number,” she says. “The U.S. producer needs beans to find support there. Any rally that gets them close to $10.50 should be rewarded handsomely.”

---

Back