January WASDE considered ‘trend changer’

January 16, 2025 | Kriss Nelson

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released three bullish reports affecting corn and soybean farmers last week when they published the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), a summary of 2024 crop production and quarterly grain stocks numbers.

Al Kluis, managing director of Kluis Commodity Advisors, says the final crop production report was much more bullish than the trade expected and what he thought was possible.

“What really jumped out at me was the USDA lowering yields on both corn and soybeans,” he says. “Corn yield was lowered by 3.8 bushels to the acre to 179.3, which is still a record yield, but a lot different than what we expected. Soybeans took a bushel off an acre, and harvested acres were reduced by 221,000. That is quite a change in soybean production. A change I would call a trend changer.”

Later-season dryness most likely accounts for the adjustments in crop production.

Quarterly grain stocks report

The lowered crop production adjustments mean a smaller supply, which was reflected in the quarterly grain stocks report.

Soybean stocks came in at 3.1 billion bushels, which is up 3% from a year ago. Although not a record, soybean usage was up 13% from last year.

“Everyone was so focused on a smaller crop, but we also have near record demand,” says Kluis. “Historically, once you have that strong demand in place, you can’t just flip the switch and shut that off, so looking ahead this is a positive report for soybeans.”

Stocks came in at 12.1 billion bushels for corn, down 1% from a year ago.
“Not only is there a smaller corn supply, but there was a record use for corn in the first quarter of the marketing year,” he says.

WASDE 2024/2025 ending stocks

 Lower production and a strong, consistent demand for corn from last year dropped ending stocks to corn.

“Three months ago, we thought we had a 2.2 billion bushel ending stocks of corn, and now we are at 1.57 billion bushels. That is a big change,” says Kluis.

Soybean’s 2024/2025 ending stocks were not as burdensome as the market expected.

According to Kluis, soybean ending stocks were thought to be 412 million bushels, but they are now 380 million bushels.

“What gets more exciting for the soybean industry is if you look ahead, I think we are looking at 3 to 4 million fewer soybean acres in 2025 with strong soybean usage. I will conservatively say we can have a 51 bushel to the acre crop next year. Supply gets incredibly tight,” he says. “I think 2025 is going to be a very exciting year in the soybean industry.”

Earlier this week, soybeans were trading a $1 a bushel off the high reached in November.

“For people with 50 to 60 bushel an acre soybeans that is quite a change in their outlook and also, what looked like was going to be a tough year in 2025, all of a sudden November 2025 soybeans went from $9.80 a bushel up to $10.40,” says Kluis. “A lot of people were looking at losses at excess of $100 per acre. For Iowa soybean farmers, this is a huge change in revenue for them this year. This is a game changer, a trend changer, whatever you want to call it. It’s a significant report that was positive all the way around.”

Marketing tips

Farmers, according to Kluis, should prioritize focus, discipline, and incremental sales strategies.

“Make incremental sales. Spread those sales out. We still have the reality of a large crop potential coming out of Brazil, there’s also the U.S. dollar trading at 110% and we have a lot of uncertainty with the new administration,” he says.

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